Best method to identify trend in forex.
Hi guys, I just start a trading discussion about what the best method to identify trend. We know there are three type of trend:
1. Up Trend 2. Down Trend 3. Sideway.
How we identify Trend?
Thanks in Advanced.
Hi guys, I just start a trading discussion about what the best method to identify trend. We know there are three type of trend:
1. Up Trend 2. Down Trend 3. Sideway.
How we identify Trend?
Thanks in Advanced.
The easy way is use , pattern , sr, zz, and couple of news .
Hi guys, I just start a trading discussion about what the best method to identify trend. We know there are three type of trend:
1. Up Trend 2. Down Trend 3. Sideway.
How we identify Trend?
Thanks in Advanced.
Hi guys, I just start a trading discussion about what the best method to identify trend. We know there are three type of trend:
1. Up Trend 2. Down Trend 3. Sideway.
How we identify Trend?
Thanks in Advanced.
If you want to start a discussion, maybe it would be better to give your method or idea.
My best strategy to trade the trend is Ichimoku. That's a good way to determine the direction of the market.
I'm working with and it gives good opportunities.
Indentifying the trend depends on the analyzed timeframe,
for the D1 timeframe the 200 EMA can be used:
if the 200 EMA slope is up and the price action is on the upper side of the EMA => uptrend if the 200 EMA slope is down and the price action is on the lower side of the EMA => downtrend.
I mention the daily chart because it shows the important trend,
on lower timeframes you could take as a trend what is only a correction of the trend on the daily.
Here is the sparing partner if looking for MA when it tranding the price will push out from the ribbon , the ribbon color reprecent the s & r and the price it self has it own s & r .
When price get loomed in side the ribbon get out soon or dont get in to the muddy water . test it at 4 h see if can be identify , not that hard to look how it work and where it goes .
Each time frame has it own nuace and caracter be be learn , as far as it goes , thats never been any beter indicator more then price it self .
Candlestickis theonly way that can be easy read pattren , tf loweer better the sl will be muh smaller unless the account has better breeding , in with a reason out with a reason .
scalper need lots of stamina , day trader need alots of thinking , possition trader even worse of stamina draining , unless ( dont mind miss or hit ) got some farm to bet .
There is the thread about it with some indicators and so on - Market Condition Evaluation :
Determining the Direction of the Trend.
by Richard Krivo.
You may have heard the expression “the trend is your friend”. Well, that could not be more true when it comes to trading. Being able to identif y the trend on a currency pair… the direction in which the pair has been moving fo r an extended period of time… will benefit a trader greatly. Trading in the direction of the trend on the Daily chart is like running with the wind at your back. Except that , when trading, the trader has the momentum of the market behind their trade.
The first step in determining the trend is to check the Daily charts of each currency pair, and look for the strongest trend in either direction.
Below are a few examples of a currency pair demonstrating a strong trend.
If a pair is in a strong uptrend, as is the case on the above chart of the AUDUSD, it can easily be identified on a Daily chart. There should be no question in a trader’s mind which way a pair is trending. If a trader is not sure of the direction, choose another currency pair as we are looking for the strongest available trend to trade.
We can see on the chart above, simply by looking at price action , that the pair is in an uptrend. In addition to visually seeing the trend of the currency rising to toward the top-right corner of the chart, we can also confirm the uptrend by noting that the pair has been building higher highs (in green) and higher lows (in red) as it moves up.
When trading an uptrend, an excellent strategy is to wait for a pullback to a support level and then take a long (buy) position in the direction of the Daily trend. On the chart above, once the uptrend has been established, a trader could take a long position near the points denoted in red on the chart. This technique is known as “buying on dips” . The stop-loss would be placed below the lowest point that the price had traded in each of those pullbacks.
The opposite would be true when trading a downtrend. Take a look at the USDCAD Daily chart below …
The downtrend is identified when the pair has been building lower highs (green) and lower lows (red). In this case, the trader would sell into the downtrend by waiting for a pullback to a level of resistance (green) and then taking a short position in the direction of the Daily trend, with a stop above the highest point to which the pair traded in the pullback. This is called “selling on rallies”.
The key here is that by trading in the direction of the Daily trend, the trader will be entering trades that have a greater likelihood of success since the momentum of the entire market is behind them. While pips can be made trading against the trend, any pips earned in a countertrend trade will come with a much greater level of risk associated with them. As traders, we want to eliminate as much risk as possible from each trade.
You should now have an understanding of the way to determine the trend of a currency pair.
---Written by Richard Krivo.
To contact Richard, please instructordailyfx . You can follow Richard on TwitterRKrivoFX.
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5 Ways To Identify The Direction Of The Trend.
Contents in this article.
Trading with the trend is trading with the flow. When the prevailing trend is up, why would you want to look for short entries when buying might result in much smoother trades? Many amateur traders, even when facing a long lasting trend that has been going on for months, can’t stop trying to predict reversals, whereas they could have made so much more money by simply joining the trend.
But even if you are not a trend-following trader, you can combine the concept of trading with the higher timeframe trend with your regular trading approach: you start on the Daily timeframe and see if the trend its up, down or sideways and you use that information on your lower, execution timeframe to time your trades (read here: how to perform a multi-timeframe analysis). To be able to correctly read price action, trends and trend direction, we will now introduce the most effective ways to analyze a chart.
In our Forex trading course , you will learn even more about this way of reading and trading price.
Intro: The different market phases.
Before we start going over how to identify the trend, we should be first clear what we are looking for. Markets can do one of three things: go up, go down, or move sideways.
The picture above shows you the three possible scenarios and how markets keep alternating between the phases. But knowing what has happened after the fact is always the easy part . The hard part is finding out what is currently happening when markets are moving in real time and the space on the right is empty – that’s where this article comes in. To be clear, the article is not meant to show you how to identify trading entries, but to understand price and trends in a more efficient way.
1. The simple way: line graph.
Most traders only use bars and candles when it comes to observing charts, but completely forget about a very effective and simple tool that allows them to look through all the clutter and noise: the line graph . The purpose of bars and candles is to provide detailed information about what is happening on your charts, but is this really necessary when it comes to identifying the overall trend? Probably not.
A trader would do well to zoom out from time to time (at least once a week) and switch to the line graph to get a better and clearer picture of what is currently happening. And since our only goal is to identify the direction, the line graph is a perfect starting point, especially when we are on the higher timeframe and just want to identify the overall market direction.
2. Highs and lows.
This is my personal favorite way of analyzing charts and although it sounds so simple, it is usually everything you need. Conventional technical analysis says that during an uptrend you have higher highs , because buyers are in the majority and push price higher, and lows are also higher because buyers keep buying the dips earlier and earlier. It works the same during a downtrend: lows are lower when the seller surplus moves price lower and highs are lower because sellers sell earlier and buyers are not as interested.
Again, it is not too important to get totally lost if you are using the trend direction just as a filter for your trades. In most cases you should be able to tell relatively quickly whether you are in an uptrend, in a downtrend or in a range.
Rule of thumb: If you can’t tell what is happening on your charts quickly, it is usually better to stand aside until you can see clearly again.
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3. Moving averages.
Moving averages are undoubtedly among the most popular trading tools and they are great to identify the market direction as well. However, there are a few things to be aware of when it comes to analyzing trend direction with moving averages.
The length of the moving average highly impacts when you get a signal when markets turn. A small (fast) moving average might give a lot of early and false signals because it reacts too soon to minor price movements. On the other hand, a fast moving average can get you out early when the trend is about to change. A slow moving average might provide signals too late. Or, it can help you ride trends longer when it filters out the noise.
In the screenshot below we used the 50 EMA which is a mid-term moving average. You can see that during an uptrend, price always stayed well above the moving average and once price has crossed the moving average, it entered a range. In a range, price does not pay too much attention to moving averages because they fall in the middle of the range, hence average .
If you want to use moving averages as a filter, you can apply the 50 MA to the daily timeframe and then only look for trades in the direction of the daily MA on the lower timeframes.
4. Channels and trend lines.
Channels and trend lines are another way of identifying the direction of a trend and they can also help you understand range markets much better.
Whereas moving averages and the analysis of highs and lows can also be used during early trend stages, trendlines are better suited for later trend stages because you need at least 2 touch-points (better 3) to draw a trendline.
I mainly use trendlines to identify changes of established trends; when you have a strong trend and suddenly the trendline breaks, it can signal the transition into a new trend. Trendlines during ranges are ideal when it comes to finding breakout scenarios when price enters the trending mode again. Also, trendlines can be combined with moving averages nicely because of the complimentary characteristics.
If you want to learn more about trendlines, take a few minutes and watch our video here: learn how to draw trendlines .
5. How to use the ADX indicator.
The ADX is an indicator that you could use to determine the direction of the trend and for the strength as well. The ADX indicator comes with three lines: the ADX line that tells you the strength of the trend (we deleted this line in our example, since we only want to analyze the direction of the trend), the +DI line which shows the bullish strength ( green line ) and the - DI line which shows the bearish strength ( red line ).
As you can see in the screenshot below, the ADX signals an uptrend when the green line is on top of the red line, and it signals a downtrend when the red line is higher than the green line. When price is ranging, the two DI lines are very close together and hover around the middle.
The ADX can be combined with moving averages nicely and you can see that once the DI lines cross, price also crosses the moving average. In the video below we explain how to use the ADX in more detail with the other concepts.
Combining the best trading tools.
As we have seen in this article, every tool and concept has its advantages and limitations – nothing will work all of the time. However, it is not necessary that you find a way to achieve a 100% winrate ( which will not happen anyway ) as long as your winners are bigger than your losses.
In the end, it comes down to how well you choose your trading tools, how well you understand them and how good you are when it comes to applying them to live market conditions.
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3 comments.
gret posts, I am using website as tudy material, as I started trading stocks full time.
You are great on forex, Please what is (padding) as you mentioned on one of your trading articles.
Thank you, Osusu.
Padding just means ‘space’ and a little room to account for volatility.
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3 Steps to a Forex Trend Trade.
by Walker England.
A trend trading plan can be created in 3 simple steps Traders can find a trend and then look to trade a price breakout Managing market exits can be done using previously identified highs and lows.
It can be extremely difficult for new traders to finalize a trend trading strategy for trading the Forex market. However, the good news is that most trend based strategies can be broken down into three different components. Today we are going to review the basics of a trending market strategy by identifying the trend, planning an entry, and identifying an exit.
So let’s get started!
The first step to trend trading is to find the trend! There are many ways to identify the GBPUSD trend pictured below, but one of easiest is through identifying if price is creating higher highs or higher low. If price is stair stepping upwards that means price is making higher highs, and the trend is up. Conversely if price is stepping down toward lower lows this mean price is potentially declining in a downtrend.
Given the information above, traders should look for opportunities to buy the GBPUSD in its current uptrend. Pictured below we can see the chart graphically creating higher highs. If the trend continues, expectations are that price will remain support and new highs will continue to be created.
Learn Forex –GBPUSD 4Hour Trend.
(Created using FXCM’s Marketscope 2.0 charts)
Once a trend is found, traders can choose from a variety of tactics to enter into the market. One of the easiest ways to enter into the market is through the use of a breakout. Since the definition of an uptrend is the creation of higher highs and higher lows, traders can plan to enter into the market when the trend continues and the GBPUSD breaks to a higher high.
Below you can see an entry to buy the GBP USD with the trend. Traders using this methodology can set an entry above this value and in the event price breaks above this value they will be entered into the market. There are two benefits of using an entry order . First you don’t have to be in front of your computer to be entered into a position. As long as you have an entry and the price you have selected is available for trading, your order will be triggered. Secondly, in the event price never breaks above the previous high this order can also be deleted. Now that we have an entry planned let’s look at completing our trading idea.
Learn Forex – GBPUSD Breakout Strategy.
(Created using FXCM’s Marketscope 2.0 charts)
When trading markets, there is always the potential to lose money. That’s why when trading trends, it is important to know that they will eventually come to an end. In an uptrend like the GBPUSD, traders may place stops under the previously identified swing low (higher low). In the event that price breaks under this value, it may symbolize that at least temporarily the GBPUSD trend may be ending. Traders can exit any positions at this point through the use of a Stop Order.
Knowing where to take profit is also an important part of any trend trading plan. Traders should look to avoid the “ Traders Number One Mistake ” by looking to make more in profits than what they risk in the event the trade moves against them. Using the example above, if a 150 pip stop loss has been set under the swing low, traders will expect more in return in the event that they are right. If a 300 pip limit has been set, this would create an expectation of a 1:2 Risk/Reward ratio.
---Written by Walker England, Trading Instructor.
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